CZ Personal Knowledge Base: Historical Timeline Analysis Report

AI Analysis Time: February 8, 2026 Generated from 68 Markdown Files Note: This report is AI-generated and for reference only.

Overview

This report is based on 68 Markdown files from CZ's (zccz14) personal knowledge base, spanning from March 2024 to February 8, 2026. The content includes work logs (LOGS), deep insights (INSIGHTS), debates (DEBATES), meeting minutes (MEETINGS), event analyses (EVENTS), quantitative project documentation (QUANT), and personal introductions (README).

From a temporal distribution perspective, the vast majority of content is concentrated in the high-density creation period from January to February 2026, during which 54 logs and 9 deep insight articles were produced. Earlier content primarily consists of historical performance data for the EA project (starting March 2024) and FSA theoretical articles (August 2025).

This timeline reveals a clear developmental trajectory: from practical accumulation in quantitative trading, to in-depth exploration of AI tools, to systematic construction of an investment philosophy, culminating in philosophical reflection on human-AI collaboration theory and the meaning of personal existence. The author, CZ, is a professional in quantitative trading and fintech, founder of the NTNL (No Trade No Life) team. His thinking spans four dimensions: technical engineering, investment strategy, AI system design, and humanistic philosophy.

Core Findings:

1. The CZON product evolved from a simple static site generator into an AI-Native content creation and distribution platform over 35 days, undergoing 20+ version iterations.
2. The Capital Protracted War theory developed from a vague investment intuition into a complete investment philosophy system with mathematical formalization and an experimental verification framework (SandT).
3. Human-AI collaboration thought progressed from solving specific AI programming problems to a systematic theory encompassing a controllable trust model, fractal recursive structures, and a multi-agent collaboration framework.
4. The Three-Body Dynamics Hypothesis classifies market participants into three categories—momentum capital, value capital, and liquidity capital—and derives a complete set of SDE equations, marking a leap from qualitative analysis to quantitative modeling.

Phase 1: Quantitative Trading Foundation Building (Mar 2024 ~ Nov 2025)

Phase Characteristics

Records from this phase are relatively sparse, primarily reflected in the historical performance data of the EA Project Introduction and the theoretical articles on Full Spectrum Analysis (FSA). During this period, CZ's team operated a cryptocurrency quantitative trading private fund (the predecessor to EA), accumulating over a year and a half of live trading performance, and completed extended research on the Kelly Criterion at the theoretical level.

Key Events

Main Outputs

• EA Project Introduction: A priority fund deployed on the BSC chain, with a cumulative return of +39.22%, annualized ~22%, and a maximum drawdown of only 1.12%.
• Full Spectrum Analysis: The Optimal Method for Monetizing Information: Starting from the Kelly Criterion, derives an optimal leverage calculation framework for any outcome space, including a black swan defense mechanism and a complete backtesting methodology.

Ideological Evolution

The core idea of this phase was systematizing trading strategies through mathematical and engineering means. The FSA paper reflects CZ's deep thinking on probabilistic decision-making—not seeking to predict the most likely outcome, but finding the optimal leverage across the full spectrum of all possible outcomes. This "full-spectrum thinking" later became a crucial foundation for the Capital Protracted War theory. Simultaneously, the EA project's transition from a private fund to an on-chain product reflects the team's willingness to explore decentralized finance.

Phase 2: AI Tool Exploration & CZON's Birth (Jan 5, 2026 ~ Jan 12, 2026)

Phase Characteristics

Starting January 5, 2026, CZ began recording work logs at high density, marking the formal launch of the personal knowledge base. The core event of this phase was the birth and rapid iteration of the CZON product, along with in-depth exploration of the boundaries of AI-assisted programming capabilities. Three important INSIGHTS articles were also completed during this period, laying the groundwork for the subsequent human-AI collaboration theory.

Key Events

Main Outputs

• Software Engineering Architecture for Module-Level Human-AI Collaboration: Protocol Spec-driven automated development workflow.
• How to Solve Human Desire for Control—On Controllable Trust in Human-AI Collaboration: Controllable Trust = Intent Alignment × Risk Control Triangle.
• Embrace "Finite", Design "Infinite"—A New Paradigm for Constructing Agent Systems Based on LLM Constraints: A system design paradigm directly confronting the Münchhausen trilemma.
• Rapid iteration of the CZON product from ZEN rewrite to v0.4.x.

Ideological Evolution

This phase witnessed a cognitive shift from "AI omnipotence" to "AI limitationism." The Vibe Coding Major Failure was a landmark event—CZ discovered that AI-generated OOP code was of extremely poor quality, leading to the establishment of the principle: "emphasize not using OOP, shift towards procedural and functional programming." Concurrently, the three INSIGHTS articles systematically analyzed the core contradictions of human-AI collaboration from different angles: the desire for control stems from rational fear of losing control over consequences (INSIGHTS/2); LLMs have inherent, non-eliminable structural constraints (INSIGHTS/3); the solution lies in layered collaboration and specialized division of labor (INSIGHTS/1).

Phase 3: Ideological System Construction & Capital Protracted War Formation (Jan 13, 2026 ~ Jan 24, 2026)

Phase Characteristics

This phase represents the period of highest ideological density within the entire knowledge base. CZ completed the core investment philosophy article, Capital Protracted War, while continuously encountering and overcoming obstacles in AI tool practice. The CZON product also began evolving from a local tool towards an online platform (CZONE). The team started pitching to institutions, formally initiating commercial exploration.

Key Events

Main Outputs

• Capital Protracted War: A complete strategy for individual investors to achieve class mobility, including mathematical models, practical rules, and philosophical stance.
• From Creation to Distribution—Building an AI-Native Content Engine: Content philosophy of "deep creation, shallow distribution."
• From Battlefield to Digital Space: Cross-disciplinary migration from Su Yu's operational commands to a multi-agent collaboration framework.
• "Qi Pa Shuo" 4v4 Special Edition: AI-generated debate content.
• CZON v0.4.x ~ v0.5.x version iterations, integrating OpenCode.

Ideological Evolution

The formation of the Capital Protracted War was the most significant intellectual event of this phase. CZ systematically refuted three mainstream investment views—individuals are doomed to fail (cynicism), all-in for sudden wealth (opportunism), and steady development (dogmatism)—proposing a fourth path: Controllable Loss, Accumulated Advantage, Press the Advantage. The core insight of this theory is redefining "victory"—not pursuing stable annualized returns, but defining a wealth goal and using controllable cash flow losses to pursue the opportunity to achieve it.

Simultaneously, the discovery that "leverage can be reduced to volatility" (LOGS/26) greatly simplified the analytical framework of investment theory, providing a key conceptual foundation for the subsequent Three-Body Dynamics Hypothesis.

Phase 4: Multi-Agent Practice & Theoretical Deepening (Jan 25, 2026 ~ Feb 4, 2026)

Phase Characteristics

The core theme of this phase was translating theory into practice. CZ transformed the Capital Protracted War theory into an operational experimental framework (SandT), applied multi-agent collaboration theory to CZON's adversarial translation feature, and oversaw a major architectural refactoring of the CZON product from v0.6 to v0.8. Team members advanced independent projects, and commercial exploration continued to deepen.

Key Events

Main Outputs

• SandT Experimental Framework (npm: sandt): A quantitative verification tool for the Capital Protracted War, analogous to military sand table wargaming.
• CZON v0.6 ~ v0.8: Major architectural upgrades including directory structure refactoring, YAML removal, adversarial translation.
• Returning to Simplicity: Complexity is an Inevitable Path of Cognition: Argues that true simplicity must pass through complexity, criticizes the "medium intelligence trap."
• Some To-Do Items: Four commercialization plans: Yuan system permission design, API relay monetization, PassKey authentication, payment system.

Ideological Evolution

The most important ideological shift in this phase occurred in the evaluation paradigm of the Capital Protracted War. LOGS/37 documents the paradigm shift from "pursuing peak expected return E(M)" to "focusing on take-profit frequency and time interval"—meaning no longer asking "how much can be earned on average," but "how often can the target be reached." This shift brought the theory closer to actual investment decision-making.

Simultaneously, the "Taste Determinism" proposed in LOGS/31—that in a future where AI capabilities converge, personal taste and influence will become the only irreplaceable competitive advantages—laid the groundwork for the taste theory later developed in INSIGHTS/8, On the Essence of Humanity.

Phase 5: Philosophical Reflection & Theoretical Formalization (Feb 5, 2026 ~ Feb 8, 2026)

Phase Characteristics

This is the phase with the highest philosophical concentration in the knowledge base. Within just four days, CZ completed three deep INSIGHTS articles exploring the essence of humanity (INSIGHTS/8), the essence of markets (INSIGHTS/9), and the essence of cognition (continuation of INSIGHTS/7). The derivation of the SDE equation system for the Three-Body Dynamics Hypothesis marked a leap from qualitative analysis to quantitative modeling. Concurrently, team member Mage initiated the Rust HFT project, and C1 proposed an API relay value-added service plan.

Key Events

Main Outputs

• On the Essence of Humanity: The personal knowledge base as externalized long-term memory; the LOGS/INSIGHTS dual system as a practice of "establishing words"; taste as a rejecting ability requiring surplus; shifting from "becoming a better tool" to "becoming a more honest author."
• Three-Body Dynamics Hypothesis of Capital Markets: Interaction matrix of M/V/L capital types; perfect axial symmetry of the return-risk-cost matrix; 3D cube encoding of 8 market phases; natural selection mechanism.
• Derivation of Three-Body Dynamics SDE Equation System: Complete set of stochastic differential equations for 3 fast variables (log premium, momentum, volatility) + 3 slow variables (M/V/L capital amounts).
• Chen Zhi Bitcoin Seizure Case: Tripartite law enforcement paradigm: blockchain analysis + criminal prosecution + physical asset recovery.

Ideological Evolution

The thinking in this phase exhibited dual deepening, both inward and outward. Outwardly, the Three-Body Dynamics Hypothesis classified market participants into three capital types and derived a complete SDE equation system, marking CZ's investment theory's leap from "personal strategy" to "market structure theory." Inwardly, On the Essence of Humanity confronted the most fundamental existential question of the AI era—when AI can replicate reasoning ability, where does human irreplaceability lie? CZ's answer lies in: the non-replicability of the memory carrier; taste as a rejecting ability that requires surplus to exercise; and the value reconstruction from "becoming a better tool" to "becoming a more honest author."

The conscious use of the LOGS/INSIGHTS dual system also reached maturity in this phase—LOGS record raw thought fragments, INSIGHTS refine them into complete, scrutinizable discourse, together forming a practical system for "establishing words."

Key Turning Points

Turning Point 1: Vibe Coding Major Failure (Jan 7, 2026)

• Context: CZ attempted to develop the ZEN project using AI (Claude Code) in a "vibe coding" manner, expecting AI to autonomously handle most coding work.
• Event: Vibe Coding Major Failure—AI-generated OOP code quality was extremely poor, necessitating a complete rewrite of the entire project.
• Impact: Established the technical principle of "no OOP, shift to functional programming"; catalyzed three INSIGHTS articles (Module-Level Collaboration, Controllable Trust, Embrace Finite), extracting systematic human-AI collaboration theory from failure; ZEN was renamed CZON after the rewrite.

Turning Point 2: Publication of Capital Protracted War Theory (Jan 17 / Jan 20, 2026)

• Context: CZ's team operated a quantitative fund for a year and a half, accumulating robust live performance but lacking a systematic investment philosophy expression.
• Event: Completion of the Capital Protracted War first draft (Jan 17) and revised draft (Jan 20), systematically proposing the investment philosophy of "using controllable losses to pursue cross-class returns."
• Impact: Refuted three mainstream views (individuals are doomed, all-in for sudden wealth, steady development), opening a fourth path; subsequently catalyzed a series of theories and tools including the SandT experimental framework, Signal-Market Fit concept, and the Three-Body Dynamics Hypothesis.

Turning Point 3: Paradigm Shift from E(M) to Take-Profit Frequency (Feb 1, 2026)

• Context: Initial Capital Protracted War experiments verified the feasibility of mean reversion + anti-martingale strategies under a GBM model, but evaluation still used traditional expected return metrics.
• Event: LOGS/37 proposed shifting the evaluation focus from "peak expected return E(M)" to "the frequency and time interval of take-profit events for a given target multiple."
• Impact: This shift transformed the Capital Protracted War from "how much can be earned on average" to "how often can the target be reached," aligning it more closely with actual investment decisions; simultaneously restructured the experimental framework into three independent components: market sequence (objective), signal strategy (reaction), betting strategy (subjective).

Turning Point 4: Three-Body Dynamics Hypothesis & SDE Formalization (Feb 7, 2026)

• Context: The insight from Volatility > Leverage simplified the analytical framework, prompting CZ to consider the structural relationships between market participants.
• Event: Publication of the Three-Body Dynamics Hypothesis, classifying market participants into Momentum Capital (M), Value Capital (V), and Liquidity Capital (L); LOGS/52 derived the complete set of 6 SDE equations.
• Impact: Marked the elevation of CZ's investment theory from the "personal strategy level" to the "market structure theory level"; the SDE equations verified 12 qualitative constraints and could generate real market features like chaos, volatility clustering, and fat tails; provided a mathematical foundation for subsequent quantitative modeling and empirical testing.

Turning Point 5: On the Essence of Humanity & Taste Theory (Feb 6, 2026)

• Context: With the rapid advancement of AI capabilities, CZ frequently used AI dialogues in daily work, prompting reflection on the fundamental differences between humans and AI.
• Event: Publication of On the Essence of Humanity, systematically exploring human identity in the AI era; LOGS/49 proposed "the essence of taste is the ability to reject, requiring surplus as a prerequisite."
• Impact: Elevated the practice of maintaining a personal knowledge base to the philosophical level of "establishing words"; proposed a value reconstruction from "becoming a better tool" to "becoming a more honest author"; taste theory provided deep support for CZON's content philosophy—a good content platform should cultivate user taste, not pander to algorithms.

Thematic Evolution

Theme 1: CZON Product Evolution

Evolution Logic: From a tool solving personal writing needs, to an AI-Native content creation platform, to the product vision of an "Integrated Creation Environment." Each architectural refactoring stemmed from pain points discovered in actual use (hash IDs causing cascading re-translation, YAML being AI-unfriendly, high user onboarding barriers).

Theme 2: Investment Philosophy System

Evolution Logic: From "how to trade" (FSA's optimal leverage calculation) to "why trade" (Capital Protracted War's philosophical stance) to "how do markets operate" (Three-Body Dynamics' structural theory). The level of abstraction progressively increased, moving from personal strategy to market structure.

Theme 3: Human-AI Collaboration Theory

Evolution Logic: From exploring "what AI can do" (capability boundaries), to designing "how to organize multiple AIs to collaborate" (architecture), to the philosophical inquiry of "what is the fundamental difference between humans and AI." Practical experience continuously ascended to theoretical understanding.

Theme 4: Personal Philosophy & Meaning of Existence

Evolution Logic: From specific work anxieties (control, efficiency), to a clear life strategy (wealth goals of Capital Protracted War), to fundamental existential questioning (what is the meaning of humans in the AI era). Ultimately settled on the simple yet profound answer: "becoming a more honest author."

Theme 5: Team & Business Development

Evolution Logic: From a single quantitative fund business, to a dual-engine drive of CZON/CZONE content platform + quantitative trading, to diversified business exploration like API relay and HFT arbitrage. Team members (1earn, Mage, Ryan, C1) each took on independent project lines.

Future Trajectory Prediction

The following predictions are based on developmental trends within the existing knowledge base content and are for reference only.

Short-term (1-3 months)

1. Empirical Testing of the SandT Experimental Framework: Currently, SandT only runs on GBM simulated data (LOGS/36); LOGS/51 already mentions plans to connect real market data. It is expected that real-market backtesting will be completed shortly to verify the performance of Capital Protracted War strategies under non-ideal market conditions.
2. CZONE Platform Launch: LOGS/32 and LOGS/44 repeatedly mention the vision of zero-barrier publishing for CZONE (GitHub OAuth, WYSIWYG editing, data ownership). Feedback from early user GB is driving usability improvements. An MVP of CZONE is expected to launch in the short term.
3. Advancement of Rust HFT Project: Mage's prediction market arbitrage project (LOGS/52) has just started; Rust's strong-type compiler is seen as an ideal bridge for AI-collaborative programming.
4. Empirical Testing of the Three-Body Dynamics Hypothesis: The SDE equation system (LOGS/52) derivation is complete; the next natural step is fitting parameters with real market data and testing the model's predictive power.

Medium-term (3-12 months)

1. Commercialization of API Relay Value-Added Services: The 185x price spread discovered in LOGS/38 and the relay + value-added service plan proposed by C1 in LOGS/53 point to a clear business opportunity. The team is expected to launch AI API services for developers, gaining pricing power through product-level services like LegionMind and paper writing assistance.
2. Community-Based Practice of Capital Protracted War: The "community-based trading" concept proposed in LOGS/40—multiple subjective signal strategies + programmatic betting management—may develop into an open trading signal platform.
3. CZON Ecosystem Maturation: Evolution from a personal tool to a team collaboration platform, integrating features like a comment system (cross-server comment philosophy from LOGS/47), multi-language distribution, and AI content generation.

Long-term Outlook

1. Academicization of Investment Theory: The Three-Body Dynamics Hypothesis has the potential to develop into an academic paper; the FSA Full Spectrum Analysis and Capital Protracted War theory may also be further formalized. CZ's knowledge base itself is a complete research record from practice to theory.
2. Diversification of the NTNL Team: From a single quantitative trading business to multi-threaded development in content platform (CZONE), AI services (API relay), and high-frequency trading (Rust HFT), forming a technology-driven fintech group.
3. Promotion of Personal Knowledge Base Methodology: The LOGS/INSIGHTS dual system, CZON toolchain, and AI-Native content creation workflow may become a replicable paradigm for personal knowledge management.

Conclusion

These 68 documents record the high-density thinking and practice of a quantitative trading professional over 35 days (Jan 5, 2026 ~ Feb 8, 2026), superimposed on nearly two years of prior quantitative trading accumulation (Mar 2024 ~ Nov 2025).

The core developmental arc can be summarized as three leaps:

1. From Practice to Theory: EA fund live performance → FSA Full Spectrum Analysis → Capital Protracted War philosophy → Three-Body Dynamics Hypothesis + SDE equations. Each step was an abstraction and formalization of the previous step's experience.
2. From Tool to Philosophy: CZON static site generator → AI-Native content platform → "Integrated Creation Environment" vision → taste theory and "establishing words" practice. The product development process was simultaneously a continuous inquiry into the question, "What is the essence of content?"
3. From Individual to System: Personal programming efficiency → human-AI collaboration architecture → multi-agent collaboration framework → three-body structure of market participants. The perspective expanded from "how can I be more efficient" to "how does the system self-organize."

Key Insights:

• Failure is the Most Efficient Learning Path: The Vibe Coding major failure catalyzed human-AI collaboration theory; the HYPE drawdown catalyzed risk control rules for the Capital Protracted War. Every setback transformed into systematic cognitive upgrades.
• Cross-disciplinary Migration is the Core Method of Innovation: From Su Yu's operational commands to multi-agent collaboration, from the Kelly Criterion to Full Spectrum Analysis, from military sand tables to the SandT experimental framework—CZ's thinking methodology consistently involves "finding isomorphic relationships across different domains."
• Writing is Thinking: The LOGS/INSIGHTS dual system is not just a recording tool but a process of externalizing and crystallizing thought. Many key insights (e.g., "leverage can be reduced to volatility," "the essence of taste is the ability to reject") emerged during the writing process.

Historical Significance: This knowledge base itself is an experiment on "how to be a thoughtful person with taste in the AI era." It demonstrates that even in today's era of rapidly advancing AI capabilities, deep personal thinking, systematic theory-building, and honest failure records remain irreplaceable intellectual activities. As CZ wrote in On the Essence of Humanity—the ultimate answer is not "becoming a better tool," but "becoming a more honest author."