It is February 11, 2026, morning.
I woke up particularly early today. Yesterday was quite tiring at work—I posted four logs in a row.
Yesterday, I shared my experimental results with Ryan. Ryan remarked that the team is truly flourishing in multiple areas. I also think this situation is good; each of us leads a piece of research, and what's even more valuable is that we can still come together in the end, working in solidarity through thick and thin. I suppose it's because we've come this far together, and there's a deep foundation of trust among us. Mage shares the same perspective on this issue: working separately can still enhance the team's collective well-being.
Ryan and Mage also worked late yesterday, delving into the details of the PMA project. For prediction market arbitrage, the outcome set is consistent for sports events (there's only one match result), but for Crypto Up/Down prediction markets, the oracles across different markets may not align. This means that for the same BTC Up/Down prediction market, one market might conclude "Up" while another concludes "Down." Such inconsistencies introduce arbitrage risks. Currently, during periods of low market activity, some individuals place bets in prediction markets and manipulate oracle prices to influence the outcomes. Mage is researching how to address this issue. Ryan, on the other hand, is studying arbitrage techniques for sports event markets. So far, event matching has been achieved, but the effectiveness of the arbitrage still requires further validation.
Yesterday, Mage gave me his signal strategy results for ETH and asked me to test the effectiveness of the anti-Martingale betting strategy. Today, I will import this signal strategy into SandTable for testing. I hope to see promising results. If the quality of the signal strategy far exceeds that of the benchmark signals, that would be fantastic—we could directly proceed to live trading.
Today, I hope to focus on testing the performance of the signal strategy and minimize distractions from other matters.
